Transurfing Volatility

Sign in Subscribe

Yiji

Seoul, South Korea

On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 3 | Failure Modes and Tentative Conclusions

On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 3 | Failure Modes and Tentative Conclusions

* Part 1 laid out the regime itself and its prerequisite, and Part 2 covered the oil-lag transmission channels that test the prerequisite — along with the market's forward-repricing evidence. * Part 3 sets out the four specific cases through which the regime could break, and the tentative conclusion on which

On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 2 | Oil-Lag Residual and the Market's Forward Repricing

On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 2 | Oil-Lag Residual and the Market's Forward Repricing

* In Part 1, we established that the single point of failure for the Bessent–Warsh regime is the inflation path. * The most powerful variable that could put pressure on that path is the lagged passthrough of the February 28, 2026 oil shock. * Part 2 unpacks the four channels through which

On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 1 | Introduction and Inflation Prerequisite

On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 1 | Introduction and Inflation Prerequisite

At the start of 2026, the US fiscal financing architecture has hardened into a single coherent regime rather than a sequence of discrete policy decisions — three institutional choices have moved into lock-step. * Treasury's bill-share metric switch, the Fed's RMP autopilot, and the Bessent–Warsh political layer

On CPO Pt. 5 | OCS, Testing, and the Optical Value Chain

On CPO Pt. 5 | OCS, Testing, and the Optical Value Chain

OCS — another optical trend that runs orthogonal to and alongside CPO; testing as a critical-path bottleneck in the CPO era; and an end-to-end view of the optical value chain from wafer → laser → PIC → transceiver. On CPO * Part 1, The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO * Part 2, The Economic and

On CPO Pt 4 | Today's Major CPO Products

On CPO Pt 4 | Today's Major CPO Products

A look at Nvidia (Quantum-X / Spectrum-X) and Broadcom (Humboldt / Bailly / Davisson) production CPO product lineups, Nvidia's generation-by-generation adoption timeline, and a comparison of the two vendors' entry paths. On CPO * Part 1, The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO * Part 2, The Economic and Architectural Case for

On CPO Pt. 3 | Inside the Optical Engine

On CPO Pt. 3 | Inside the Optical Engine

ELS vs. on-chip laser, MZM / MRM / EAM modulator comparison, and the OE scaling roadmap (fibers × speed × wavelengths). On CPO * Part 1, The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO * Part 2, The Economic and Architectural Case for CPO * Part 3, Inside the Optical Engine * Part 4, Today's Major CPO

On CPO Pt. 2 | The Economic and Architectural Case for CPO

On CPO Pt. 2 | The Economic and Architectural Case for CPO

Why scale-out's cluster-level TCO impact gets diluted, why scale-up forces Nvidia to adopt CPO to defend its NVLink moat, and the mechanism by which the bottleneck migrates to packaging. On CPO * Part 1, The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO * Part 2, The Economic and Architectural Case for