Transurfing Volatility

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Yiji

Seoul, South Korea

Q2 2025 Settlement

Q2 2025 Settlement

1. Net Trade P/L, Trade History & Evaluation The Q2 Net Trade P/L accounting first. [Table 1] P/L Log through Q2 '25 * Total realized P&L YTD '25: KRW 89,520,593. * Q2-only realized P&L: KRW 49,891,457 * Including unrealized KRW

Q2 2025 QRA Update and the Risk of a Q3 Correction

The US Treasury's late-April QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) is out. A short follow-up analysis. 1. The Q2 2025 QRA Update The Target Balance (End-of-Quarter Cash Balance) is set at $850B, same as Q1, but the following are worth noting: * Q1 estimated vs actual borrowing gap: the estimate was

April 2025 Market Recap and May Liquidity Outlook

April 2025 Market Recap and May Liquidity Outlook

1. SPX, Treasury Yields, and GOLD After the Trump administration's April 2 reciprocal-tariff announcement, macro- and micro-level uncertainty surged. Funds left equities, the main risk-asset class, and Treasury yields moved differently from Q1 2025. In theory, when equities fall long yields tend to fall too — recession fear lifts

Q1 2025 Settlement

Q1 2025 Settlement

1. Net Trade P/L The Q1 Net Trade P/L accounting first. Total realized P&L KRW 29,418,758. Public Equities trade record Crypto trade record * January: cashed out some holdings against potential volatility. * February: entered some positions post-DeepSeek and ran short-term volatility trades. * March: raised cash

Q2 2025 US TGA Funding and Liquidity Outlook

Q2 2025 US TGA Funding and Liquidity Outlook

Analyzing the US Treasury TGA balance — one of the core system-liquidity gauges — and a medium-term liquidity outlook through the lens of the debt-ceiling negotiation. 1. Where Things Stand On Jan 21, 2025 the US Treasury entered a Debt Issuance Suspension Period. Issuance had neared the $36.104T ceiling, so from

Macro Check, Systematic Decomposition of 2025 Macro Uncertainty

Macro Check, Systematic Decomposition of 2025 Macro Uncertainty

For the direction of US equities, the 10Y Treasury yield is one core gauge that succinctly shows the market's risk perception and the state of the US economy. US policy rate vs 10Y Treasury yield — directions diverge from September 2024 Despite the Fed's repeated cuts, the

2024 Year-End Review (Brief)

2024 Year-End Review (Brief)

The year 2025 has begun. From July 2024, to clarify the logic of my own investment / trade scenario design, I opened a blog and serialized macro and market notes. In 2024 I focused on active capital management centered on swing trades — from a few months to up to a year