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Yiji

Seoul, South Korea

4Q25 Review Pt. 3 | A Short-to-Medium-Term Liquidity Scenario Centered on USDJPY

4Q25 Review Pt. 3 | A Short-to-Medium-Term Liquidity Scenario Centered on USDJPY

The point: the policy-rate-spread-centric USDJPY pricing mechanism may be sitting in a short-term distorted regime. 4Q25 Review * Part 1⎯From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off * Part 2⎯US Q3 GDP Review * Part 3⎯A Short-to-Medium-Term Liquidity Scenario Centered on USDJPY Since Sep 18, 2024, the Fed exited the high-rate regime and

4Q25 Review Pt. 2 | US Q3 GDP Review

4Q25 Review Pt. 2 | US Q3 GDP Review

A quarter where the growth print was high, but the composition of the growth drivers and the measurement uncertainty have to be read separately. 4Q25 Review * Part 1⎯From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off * Part 2⎯US Q3 GDP Review * Part 3⎯A Short-to-Medium-Term Liquidity Scenario Centered on USDJPY 1. The

4Q25 Review Pt. 1 | From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off

4Q25 Review Pt. 1 | From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off

The chain mechanism behind the Q4 market correction. 1. Structural Backdrop — Sustained Q3 TGA Absorption, ONRRP Depletion, then Continued QT Eroding the Reserve Buffer After the TGA balance bottomed in July / November, system liquidity was absorbed into the TGA through Q3. The market should normally have corrected on the after-effects,

Q4 2025 US Treasury QRA Summary

Q4 2025 US Treasury QRA Summary

The core of the Q4 2025 US Treasury QRA is the decision to freeze coupon (2Y+) issuance at the current level. This gave immediate relief to a market that had feared long-end supply pressure. But the massive deficit-financing need persists, and the Treasury formalized a strategy of meeting it via

Q4 2025 Macro Liquidity Check

Q4 2025 Macro Liquidity Check

1. Liquidity Environment The indicators most representatively monitored when checking the tape ultimately reduce to "liquidity." "Row while the tide is in" involves two actors — (a) the one who actually lets the water in, and (b) the one who rows on time. Most market participants are

Q3 2025 Settlement

Q3 2025 Settlement

1. Net Trade P/L, Trade History & Evaluation The Q3 Net Trade P/L accounting first. [P/L Log through Q3 '25] As of Oct 1, 2025: * Total realized P&L YTD '25: KRW 152,199,664 * Q3-only realized P&L: KRW 72,448,829

Q2 2025 Settlement

Q2 2025 Settlement

1. Net Trade P/L, Trade History & Evaluation The Q2 Net Trade P/L accounting first. [Table 1] P/L Log through Q2 '25 * Total realized P&L YTD '25: KRW 89,520,593. * Q2-only realized P&L: KRW 49,891,457 * Including unrealized KRW