macroeconomics

Analyzing the US Treasury TGA balance — one of the core system-liquidity gauges — and a medium-term liquidity outlook through the lens of the debt-ceiling negotiation. 1. Where Things Stand On Jan 21, 2025 the US Treasury entered a Debt Issuance Suspension Period. Issuance had neared the $36.104T ceiling, so from

For the direction of US equities, the 10Y Treasury yield is one core gauge that succinctly shows the market's risk perception and the state of the US economy. US policy rate vs 10Y Treasury yield — directions diverge from September 2024 Despite the Fed's repeated cuts, the

US equities closed the week with high volatility. The VIX rose ~30% over a month, and the US 10Y Treasury yield rose ~16% over a month to 4.39%. Behind the steep long-end rise despite the Fed's cut sit Sticky Inflation concern and US-election uncertainty. This note covers

1. The Switch in the Liquidity Source US equities are printing record highs day after day. The S&P 500 is at a new high in the 5,800s, the Nasdaq 100 at a new high in the 20,300s. As stressed before, index gains are made by rising

The major earnings season is largely done. Summary: * Strong demand for AI accelerators (hardware) and cloud (big-tech's aggressive investment commentary; visible in $TSM's results). * In-house AI software, by contrast, is mostly still early-investment stage ($PLTR / $NOW excepted). For big tech this season showed "rising customer

Part 2 established that reserves have been in sustained decline since Q2 2024. Part 3 sets the H2 2024 scenario, metric by metric. Summary: * SOMA: keeps falling on continued QT. * Lending facilities: possible early BTFP repayment within four months. * RRP: likely drawn to fund the Treasury's Q3 TGA