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On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 3 | Failure Modes and Tentative Conclusions

* Part 1 laid out the regime itself and its prerequisite, and Part 2 covered the oil-lag transmission channels that test the prerequisite — along with the market's forward-repricing evidence. * Part 3 sets out the four specific cases through which the regime could break, and the tentative conclusion on which

On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 2 | Oil-Lag Residual and the Market's Forward Repricing

* In Part 1, we established that the single point of failure for the Bessent–Warsh regime is the inflation path. * The most powerful variable that could put pressure on that path is the lagged passthrough of the February 28, 2026 oil shock. * Part 2 unpacks the four channels through which

On the Bessent-Warsh Regime Pt. 1 | Introduction and Inflation Prerequisite

At the start of 2026, the US fiscal financing architecture has hardened into a single coherent regime rather than a sequence of discrete policy decisions — three institutional choices have moved into lock-step. * Treasury's bill-share metric switch, the Fed's RMP autopilot, and the Bessent–Warsh political layer

On CPO Pt. 5 | OCS, Testing, and the Optical Value Chain

OCS — another optical trend that runs orthogonal to and alongside CPO; testing as a critical-path bottleneck in the CPO era; and an end-to-end view of the optical value chain from wafer → laser → PIC → transceiver. On CPO * Part 1, The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO * Part 2, The Economic and

On CPO Pt 4 | Today's Major CPO Products

A look at Nvidia (Quantum-X / Spectrum-X) and Broadcom (Humboldt / Bailly / Davisson) production CPO product lineups, Nvidia's generation-by-generation adoption timeline, and a comparison of the two vendors' entry paths. On CPO * Part 1, The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO * Part 2, The Economic and Architectural Case for

On CPO Pt. 3 | Inside the Optical Engine

ELS vs. on-chip laser, MZM / MRM / EAM modulator comparison, and the OE scaling roadmap (fibers × speed × wavelengths). On CPO * Part 1, The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO * Part 2, The Economic and Architectural Case for CPO * Part 3, Inside the Optical Engine * Part 4, Today's Major CPO

On CPO Pt. 2 | The Economic and Architectural Case for CPO

Why scale-out's cluster-level TCO impact gets diluted, why scale-up forces Nvidia to adopt CPO to defend its NVLink moat, and the mechanism by which the bottleneck migrates to packaging. On CPO * Part 1, The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO * Part 2, The Economic and Architectural Case for

On CPO Pt.1 | The Phased Transition from Pluggables to CPO

Before getting into the main parts, this briefing-style opener covers the conclusion, the core summary, and the five-step spectrum of optics moving closer to the chip (Pluggables → LPO → OBO → NPO → CPO). Conclusion * CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is hard to frame simply as "a technology that reduces networking power and cost.

4Q25 Review Pt. 3 | A Short-to-Medium-Term Liquidity Scenario Centered on USDJPY

The point: the policy-rate-spread-centric USDJPY pricing mechanism may be sitting in a short-term distorted regime. 4Q25 Review * Part 1⎯From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off * Part 2⎯US Q3 GDP Review * Part 3⎯A Short-to-Medium-Term Liquidity Scenario Centered on USDJPY Since Sep 18, 2024, the Fed exited the high-rate regime and

4Q25 Review Pt. 2 | US Q3 GDP Review

A quarter where the growth print was high, but the composition of the growth drivers and the measurement uncertainty have to be read separately. 4Q25 Review * Part 1⎯From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off * Part 2⎯US Q3 GDP Review * Part 3⎯A Short-to-Medium-Term Liquidity Scenario Centered on USDJPY 1. The

4Q25 Review Pt. 1 | From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off

The chain mechanism behind the Q4 market correction. 1. Structural Backdrop — Sustained Q3 TGA Absorption, ONRRP Depletion, then Continued QT Eroding the Reserve Buffer After the TGA balance bottomed in July / November, system liquidity was absorbed into the TGA through Q3. The market should normally have corrected on the after-effects,

Q4 2025 US Treasury QRA Summary

The core of the Q4 2025 US Treasury QRA is the decision to freeze coupon (2Y+) issuance at the current level. This gave immediate relief to a market that had feared long-end supply pressure. But the massive deficit-financing need persists, and the Treasury formalized a strategy of meeting it via

Q4 2025 Macro Liquidity Check

1. Liquidity Environment The indicators most representatively monitored when checking the tape ultimately reduce to "liquidity." "Row while the tide is in" involves two actors — (a) the one who actually lets the water in, and (b) the one who rows on time. Most market participants are

Q3 2025 Settlement

1. Net Trade P/L, Trade History & Evaluation The Q3 Net Trade P/L accounting first. [P/L Log through Q3 '25] As of Oct 1, 2025: * Total realized P&L YTD '25: KRW 152,199,664 * Q3-only realized P&L: KRW 72,448,829